CPI vs Average Hourly Earnings
Real wage growth — wage gains minus inflation — is what actually determines whether households are getting ahead. Compare nominal wage growth and CPI inflation directly.
CPIAUCSLCES0500000003- CPI
- Avg Hourly Earnings
Nominal wage growth measures how fast paychecks are rising. CPI measures how fast prices are rising. Subtract one from the other and you get real wage growth — the part of wage gains that's actually available to spend.
From 2021 through mid-2023, CPI inflation ran above nominal wage growth for the first sustained stretch in decades. Real wages were falling: workers got raises, but prices rose faster. From mid-2023 onward the relationship flipped as inflation cooled faster than wage growth — real wages have grown since, partially recovering the purchasing power lost in the prior two years.
The BLS publishes several wage measures. Average hourly earnings (from the establishment survey) is the most common monthly gauge; the Employment Cost Index and Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker offer complementary views that control for composition effects.
Related comparisons
CPI vs PCE
CPI and PCE are the two main U.S. inflation gauges. They usually move together but measure different baskets with different weights — and the gap between them drives where the Fed sets policy.
Core CPI vs Core PCE
Core measures strip out food and energy — the two most volatile CPI and PCE components — to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Core PCE is the Fed's single most-watched inflation gauge.
CPI vs PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures prices received by domestic producers. Changes in PPI often show up in CPI several months later — making PPI a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
10-Year vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
When 2-year yields exceed 10-year yields the curve is inverted — and inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. Compare the two benchmark yields directly.
Fed Funds Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield
The federal funds rate is the Fed's lever on short-term interest rates; the 10-year Treasury yield is set by the bond market. Comparing them shows the market's read on Fed policy.
30-Year Mortgage vs 10-Year Treasury
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread that reflects credit risk, prepayment risk, and mortgage-backed-security pricing.