T10YIE10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE) — Current Value & Historical Data
FRED series title: 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE) Chart & Data Table
Showing 2,499 of 5,952 observations. Pick "All" to see the full history (2003-01-02–2026-10-16).
Gray bands: NBER recessions·Dashed lines: key policy events
What is 10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE)?
The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate represents the market's expectation of average U.S. CPI inflation over the next 10 years, derived daily by the Federal Reserve Board from the spread between nominal 10-year Treasury yields and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. If nominal yields and TIPS yields diverge, investors are pricing in inflation: the difference is the breakeven. The measure is the single most-watched market-based inflation expectations gauge, feeding into Federal Reserve policy deliberations, asset-allocation decisions, and inflation-protection hedging strategies. Breakevens collapsed to 0.17% on November 20, 2008 during the Lehman-era deflation scare and peaked at 3.02% on April 21, 2022 during the post-COVID inflation surge. Readings sustained near 2% indicate inflation expectations anchored at the Fed's target.
Current 10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE) Value
As of October 16, 2026, the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.35 Percent. This is the most recent observation available for this series, updated daily.
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Historical Trend
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate rose 1.29% day-over-day. Over the past year, 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose 2.17% from October 2025. In the series' tracked history, the highest recorded value was 3.02 (April 2022), and the lowest was 0.04 (November 2008).
Methodology & Source
Source
Federal Reserve Board
Frequency
Daily
Units
Percent
Notes
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (DGS10 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (DFII10 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10...
Frequently Asked Questions About 10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE)
What is the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate?
As of October 16, 2026, 10-year breakeven inflation rate stands at 2.35 Percent.
Where does 10-year breakeven inflation rate data come from?
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system and related U.S. government agencies. Data quality and historical coverage vary by series.
How often is 10-year breakeven inflation rate updated?
This series is updated according to its publication schedule. Check FRED or the source agency for the most current release calendar.
What is the historical high and low for 10-year breakeven inflation rate?
In the available data, the highest value was 3.02 Percent in April 2022, and the lowest was 0.04 Percent in November 2008.
How has 10-year breakeven inflation rate changed over the past year?
Over the past year, 10-year breakeven inflation rate increased 2.17%.
See 10-Year Breakeven Inflation in context
T10YIE is tracked on the Inflation dashboard, alongside related indicators and historical context.
View the Inflation dashboard →Related government-spending dashboards
How 10-Year Breakeven Inflation connects to the federal budget across GOVSPENDING.ORG:
Federal Debt
Total public debt, debt held by the public, and intragovernmental holdings.
Receipts vs Outlays
Federal revenue, spending, and the resulting surplus or deficit over time.
Congressional Activity
Recent legislation, appropriations, and fiscal-related bills in Congress.
Interest Expense vs Revenue
How rising debt service costs crowd out federal spending as a share of receipts over time.
Revenue Composition
Federal receipts broken down by source — individual income, corporate, social insurance, excise taxes, and customs duties as shares of total revenue.
Agency Spending (FY 2019 vs FY 2025)
Net outlays by federal agency for FY 2019 and FY 2025, from the Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement. Both nominal and inflation-adjusted comparisons.