T10Y2Y10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity — Current Value & Historical Data
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Gray bands: NBER recessions·Dashed lines: key policy events
What is 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity?
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is the difference between the constant-maturity yields on the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, calculated daily by the Federal Reserve Board from H.15 data. It is the single most widely cited shape-of-the-curve measure in U.S. finance and the most reliable recession indicator of the past five decades: every U.S. recession since 1969 has been preceded by an inversion — a negative spread — usually six to eighteen months in advance. An inversion implies the market expects the Fed to cut short-term rates in the future, typically because it expects an economic slowdown. The T10Y2Y spread inverted in July 2022 and stayed negative for a record 793 calendar days through September 2024, the longest inversion in the series' recorded history, before re-steepening. The spread bottomed near -1.08 percentage points in July 2023, its deepest inversion since the early 1980s Volcker disinflation era.
Current 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Value
As of June 2, 2026, the current 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity is 0.41 Percent. This is the most recent observation available for this series, updated daily.
Historical Trend
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity fell 2.38% day-over-day. Over the past year, 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity fell 19.61% from May 2025. In the series' tracked history, the highest recorded value was 2.91 (February 2011), and the lowest was -2.41 (March 1980).
Methodology & Source
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Frequency: Daily
Units: Percent
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield). Series is calculated as the ...