T10Y2Y10y–2y Treasury Spread (T10Y2Y) — Current Value & Historical Data
10y–2y Treasury Spread (T10Y2Y) Chart & Data Table
Showing 2,498 of 12,561 observations. Pick "All" to see the full history (1976-06-01–2026-09-02).
Gray bands: NBER recessions·Dashed lines: key policy events
What is 10y–2y Treasury Spread (T10Y2Y)?
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is the difference between the constant-maturity yields on the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, calculated daily by the Federal Reserve Board from H.15 data. It is the single most widely cited shape-of-the-curve measure in U.S. finance and the most reliable recession indicator of the past five decades: every U.S. recession since 1969 has been preceded by an inversion — a negative spread — usually six to eighteen months in advance. An inversion implies the market expects the Fed to cut short-term rates in the future, typically because it expects an economic slowdown. The T10Y2Y spread inverted in July 2022 and stayed negative for a record 793 calendar days through September 2024, the longest inversion in the series' recorded history, before re-steepening. The spread bottomed near -1.08 percentage points in July 2023, its deepest inversion since the early 1980s Volcker disinflation era.
Current 10y–2y Treasury Spread (T10Y2Y) Value
As of September 2, 2026, the current 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity is 0.40 Percent. This is the most recent observation available for this series, updated daily.
10y–2y Treasury Spread Historical Trend
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity remained flat essentially unchanged day-over-day. Over the past year, 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity fell 33.33% from August 2025. In the series' tracked history, the highest recorded value was 2.91 (February 2011), and the lowest was -2.41 (March 1980).
Methodology & Source
Source
Federal Reserve Board
Frequency
Daily
Units
Percent
Notes
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield). Series is calculated as the ...
Frequently Asked Questions About 10y–2y Treasury Spread (T10Y2Y)
What is the current 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity?
As of September 2, 2026, 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity stands at 0.40 Percent.
Where does 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity data come from?
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system and related U.S. government agencies. Data quality and historical coverage vary by series.
How often is 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity updated?
This series is updated according to its publication schedule. Check FRED or the source agency for the most current release calendar.
What is the historical high and low for 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity?
In the available data, the highest value was 2.91 Percent in February 2011, and the lowest was -2.41 Percent in March 1980.
How has 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity changed over the past year?
Over the past year, 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity decreased 33.33%.
See 10y–2y Treasury Spread in context
T10Y2Y is tracked on the Interest Rates dashboard, alongside related indicators and historical context.
View the Interest Rates dashboard →Related government-spending dashboards
How 10y–2y Treasury Spread connects to the federal budget across GOVSPENDING.ORG:
Federal Debt
Total public debt, debt held by the public, and intragovernmental holdings.
Receipts vs Outlays
Federal revenue, spending, and the resulting surplus or deficit over time.
Congressional Activity
Recent legislation, appropriations, and fiscal-related bills in Congress.
Interest Expense vs Revenue
How rising debt service costs crowd out federal spending as a share of receipts over time.
Revenue Composition
Federal receipts broken down by source — individual income, corporate, social insurance, excise taxes, and customs duties as shares of total revenue.
Agency Spending (FY 2019 vs FY 2024)
Net outlays by federal agency for FY 2019 and FY 2024, from the Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement. Both nominal and inflation-adjusted comparisons.