What is 10-Year Treasury Yield?
The 10-year Treasury yield is the annual return on a 10-year U.S. government note. It is the single most-referenced long-term interest rate in the U.S. economy, serving as the benchmark for 30-year fixed mortgages, corporate bond pricing, and global risk-free-rate calculations.
Live data: Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — · Daily · 3,073 observations
Most recent observation: 4.32 Percent as of April 16, 2026.
Understanding 10-Year Treasury Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield is the single most-referenced long-term interest rate in the U.S. economy. It is the benchmark for 30-year fixed mortgages, investment-grade corporate bond pricing, and global risk-free-rate calculations. When analysts discuss 'the 10-year' without further context, they mean this yield.
The yield is set by the market — Treasury securities trade continuously, and the yield is derived from the price investors are willing to pay. The Federal Reserve doesn't directly control the 10-year yield, though its policy rate and bond-buying operations influence it indirectly.
Broadly, the 10-year yield reflects three components: expected average short-term rates over the next decade, expected inflation over that period, and a term premium compensating investors for the uncertainty and illiquidity of locking up capital for 10 years. The term premium has been unusually low or even negative for much of the post-2008 era, contributing to persistently low long-term rates during the 2010s.
How 10-Year Treasury Yield is calculated
The Treasury publishes the constant-maturity 10-year yield daily, derived from the market price of on-the-run 10-year notes adjusted to a constant 10-year horizon. FRED series DGS10 tracks the daily value.
Historical context
The 10-year yield peaked near 16% in September 1981 during Volcker's anti-inflation campaign, troughed at 0.52% in August 2020 during the COVID emergency, and surged above 5% in October 2023 — its highest level since 2007. Historical average over the post-WWII period has been about 5.5%.
Frequently asked questions
What drives 10-year yield moves day-to-day?
Three main drivers: surprises in economic data (stronger growth or higher inflation pushes yields up), changes in Fed policy expectations, and shifts in term premium (driven by Treasury supply, foreign demand, and risk appetite). Individual data releases like CPI and NFP routinely move the 10-year by 5–15 basis points.
How does the 10-year yield affect mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are priced at the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread (typically 150–250 basis points). When the 10-year rises, mortgage rates follow within days to weeks. The relationship is not perfect — the spread varies with MBS market conditions — but the 10-year is the dominant driver.