Federal Outlays vs Receipts
Every dollar of federal outlays has to be paid for — either with current tax receipts or by issuing new debt. The gap between outlays and receipts is the deficit.
FGEXPNDFGRECPT- Federal Outlays
- Federal Receipts
The federal government rarely runs a surplus. Since 1970 it has done so in only four years (1998–2001). Every other year, outlays have exceeded receipts and Treasury borrowing has filled the gap.
The two lines tell different stories. Receipts move with the economy — recessions slash income and corporate tax revenue sharply; booms lift them. Outlays move partly with the economy (unemployment insurance, Medicaid rise in downturns) but mostly on policy schedule — Social Security and Medicare grow with beneficiary counts and inflation adjustments; defense and discretionary spending follow appropriations.
When receipts fall faster than outlays can be cut — or when Congress deliberately expands outlays during a crisis — the deficit widens sharply. The 2020 COVID deficit was the largest since World War II as a share of GDP. Receipts have since recovered; outlays have not meaningfully contracted.
Related comparisons
CPI vs PCE
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Core CPI vs Core PCE
Core measures strip out food and energy — the two most volatile CPI and PCE components — to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Core PCE is the Fed's single most-watched inflation gauge.
CPI vs PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures prices received by domestic producers. Changes in PPI often show up in CPI several months later — making PPI a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
10-Year vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
When 2-year yields exceed 10-year yields the curve is inverted — and inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. Compare the two benchmark yields directly.
Fed Funds Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield
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30-Year Mortgage vs 10-Year Treasury
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread that reflects credit risk, prepayment risk, and mortgage-backed-security pricing.