Federal Debt vs GDP
Federal debt grows faster than GDP during recessions and large fiscal expansions. Comparing the two shows whether the debt burden is rising or falling relative to the economy.
GFDEBTNGDP- Federal Debt
- Nominal GDP
Federal debt and nominal GDP tell the fiscal-sustainability story together. If debt grows at the same rate as GDP, the ratio is stable — the economy's capacity to service that debt is keeping pace. If debt grows faster, the ratio rises and future taxpayers carry a larger burden.
The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was roughly 35% in 2007. The 2008–09 recession plus the fiscal response pushed it past 70%. The COVID response pushed it past 100%. Sustained deficits in the years since have kept the ratio elevated. Economists disagree sharply on what level is "too high" — the answer depends on interest rates, growth, and a country's capacity to tax — but the trajectory is what most analysts track.
Related comparisons
CPI vs PCE
CPI and PCE are the two main U.S. inflation gauges. They usually move together but measure different baskets with different weights — and the gap between them drives where the Fed sets policy.
Core CPI vs Core PCE
Core measures strip out food and energy — the two most volatile CPI and PCE components — to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Core PCE is the Fed's single most-watched inflation gauge.
CPI vs PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures prices received by domestic producers. Changes in PPI often show up in CPI several months later — making PPI a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
10-Year vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
When 2-year yields exceed 10-year yields the curve is inverted — and inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. Compare the two benchmark yields directly.
Fed Funds Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield
The federal funds rate is the Fed's lever on short-term interest rates; the 10-year Treasury yield is set by the bond market. Comparing them shows the market's read on Fed policy.
30-Year Mortgage vs 10-Year Treasury
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread that reflects credit risk, prepayment risk, and mortgage-backed-security pricing.