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CPI and PCE are the two main U.S. inflation gauges. They usually move together but measure different baskets with different weights — and the gap between them drives where the Fed sets policy.

Core measures strip out food and energy — the two most volatile CPI and PCE components — to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Core PCE is the Fed's single most-watched inflation gauge.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures prices received by domestic producers. Changes in PPI often show up in CPI several months later — making PPI a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

When 2-year yields exceed 10-year yields the curve is inverted — and inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. Compare the two benchmark yields directly.

The federal funds rate is the Fed's lever on short-term interest rates; the 10-year Treasury yield is set by the bond market. Comparing them shows the market's read on Fed policy.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread that reflects credit risk, prepayment risk, and mortgage-backed-security pricing.

The headline U-3 rate counts only the jobless who are actively looking. U-6 also counts underemployed and marginally attached workers — a broader gauge of labor-market slack.

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate come from two different surveys released together. They usually agree — but when they diverge, that divergence is the story.

The unemployment rate only counts people actively looking for work. Labor force participation shows how many adults are in the pool to begin with — and it can fall even while unemployment drops.

Initial jobless claims are weekly, the unemployment rate is monthly. Claims tend to turn first at cycle inflections, making the pair a timely and lagging view on the same underlying labor market.

Federal debt has two components: Treasuries owned by the public, and Treasuries held by federal trust funds. The gap between the gross total and the public-held portion is intragovernmental holdings.

Federal debt grows faster than GDP during recessions and large fiscal expansions. Comparing the two shows whether the debt burden is rising or falling relative to the economy.

Every dollar of federal outlays has to be paid for — either with current tax receipts or by issuing new debt. The gap between outlays and receipts is the deficit.

Real wage growth — wage gains minus inflation — is what actually determines whether households are getting ahead. Compare nominal wage growth and CPI inflation directly.

Monetarists argue money-supply growth eventually drives inflation. The 2020–22 episode — M2 surging, then CPI surging — is the clearest test in a generation.

The Phillips Curve hypothesis: low unemployment leads to higher wages and then higher inflation; high unemployment cools both. The history is more complicated.

Brent and WTI are the two major crude oil benchmarks. They usually track within a few dollars — except when North American pipeline capacity falls short of shale production.

When the Fed buys Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, its balance sheet grows. M2 — the broad money supply — sometimes follows, sometimes doesn't.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates what the U.S. economy could produce at full employment and stable inflation. The gap between actual real GDP and that estimate is the output gap.

When mortgage rates rise, housing demand cools and builders pull back. New housing starts have historically responded to mortgage moves with a 6–12 month lag.

The S&P 500 is the standard benchmark for large-cap U.S. stocks. The NASDAQ Composite skews heavily toward technology. The spread between them measures the tech premium.

Nominal GDP measures output in current dollars; real GDP holds the price level constant. The growing gap between them is inflation accumulating year after year.

The VIX measures S&P 500 option-implied volatility; the high-yield OAS measures the extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds over Treasuries. Both surge when markets are stressed.

Industrial production tells you how much factories are making; capacity utilization tells you how stretched they are. Both come from the Federal Reserve's monthly G.17 release.

Sentiment surveys ask consumers how they feel about the economy. Retail sales measure what they actually buy. The gap between attitude and behavior is often the more interesting signal.